Friday, August 17, 2007

The 800-pound Gorilla for the 21st Century

In 1945, The Allies won World War II, due in large part to the production power and capacity of American Industry.

Here it is, 2007, and if we were faced with such a challenge today, would we fare as well?

My guess is, No. Nearly everything of necessity, including food, is imported, and most of that comes from China. Nearly all electronics are made there, items that would be necessary to win another major conflagration.

In industrial terms, the Chinese have become the 21st Century 800-pound gorilla. What they make may not be all that great, but they can make one hell of a lot of it. Looking back at WWII, America could make good stuff, and a hell of a lot of it as well.

The Allies won the tank war against the Germans for many reasons, the most notable being that we outproduced German battle tank manufacture something like 10-to-1. To be sure, all the German battle tanks - Panzer, Tiger, etc. - were better than ours, as our Sherman tanks had deadly design flaws (they were unaffectionately referred to as "Zippos"). But even if you're in the best tank, it's mighty hard to win if you have to fight 5 or 10 other tanks simultaneously.

The Chinese military, in their precursor WWII dust-up against Japan, were asked about their infantry casualty losses; figures of 10- and 12-to 1 were being thrown around. The Chinese were ill-equipped and poorly trained compared to the highly motivated Japanese. However, a Chinese general answered the question with, "Yes, we lose 10 men to their 1. But soon, no more Japanese."

This is their thinking - massive quantities can overwhelm quality every time. And since it worked for both of us at times in the past - the US with tanks, ships, planes, etc. and the Chinese with soldiers, why not again?

In the battle for the global economy, these principles are the same. China will make huge quantities of poor quality goods, but eventually nudge others out with aggressive pricing. America the Cheap will support this by buying on the low end, and eventually kill off our own capacity for industry almost entirely. And this will create a huge security problem for us, because America will be at the economic mercy of a Communist country who has never shown any love for the US. And our inability to support our own need to defend ourselves with hard goods poses a diplomatic, political and ultimately military problem of the first order.

Many people talk about the security problems associated with illegal immigration into the US. I agree that needs addressing, but it seems to me that the death of American industry is a much more pressing security issue.

Who knows, maybe we can hire the Latino illegals to work in our new factories. Or build some in Mexico. We should before the Chinese do.

No comments: